A fraught election campaign closes Thursday in Venezuela, with the country mired in uncertainty after President Nicolas Maduro warned of a “bloodbath” if he loses — which polls suggest is likely.

Maduro, seeking a third six-year term, trails far behind opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia in stated voter intent, but observers doubt he is ready to give up power.

In a video on Thursday, Maduro reiterated to the nation that only he could “guarantee peace and stability,” while Gonzalez Urrutia urged Venezuelans to not let “the message of hate… intimidate you.”

Gonzalez Urrutia, who has said he would lead a government of reconciliation, repeated that message to foreign journalists, saying: “We are not here to persecute anyone.”

In office since taking over from Hugo Chavez in 2013, Maduro counts the electoral authorities, military top brass and other state institutions among his backers.

Analysts have told AFP violence is likely if the state apparatus intervenes in an election that the opposition is all but certain of winning.

– ‘Bloodbath’ –

Last week, Maduro warned the vote’s outcome would decide the future of a country where GDP has been in freefall and household incomes have plummeted in recent years.

The choice was “whether it becomes a peaceful Venezuela or a convulsed, violent and conflict-ridden Venezuela. Peace or war,” he said.

Days earlier, he said Venezuela risks a “bloodbath” if he loses to an opposition he described as “fascists.”

US National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Thursday that Washington hoped for peaceful elections “that will reflect the will and the aspirations of the Venezuelan people for a more democratic, stable and prosperous future.”

The United States, which has sanctions in place against the Maduro government, is keen for a return to stability in oil-rich Venezuela, whose economic collapse has prompted many migrants to head to the southern US border.

Rights watchdog Human Rights Watch said the United States, European Union, and neighbors Brazil and Colombia — which host many Venezuelan migrants — should use every diplomatic tool to protect the integrity of the vote.

“While the election in Venezuela will hardly be free or fair, Venezuelans have their best chance in over a decade to elect their government, and the international community should have their back as they do,” said HRW Americas director Juanita Goebertus.

– ‘Transparent, competitive’ –

Maduro’s 2018 reelection was rejected as illegitimate by the United States and many European and Latin American countries.

But years of tough sanctions and other pressure failed to dislodge the president, who enjoys support from a system of political patronage as well as from Cuba, Russia and China.

The formerly rich petro-state has seen GDP fall by 80 percent in less than a decade on his watch, driving some seven million of its citizens to flee.

Most Venezuelans live on just a few dollars a month, with the healthcare and education systems in total disrepair, and biting shortages of electricity and fuel.

The government blames US sanctions for the state of affairs, but experts say the collapse of the country’s all-important oil industry was mainly the result of deep-rooted corruption and mismanagement.

Chile’s leftist President Gabriel Boric added his voice Thursday to the call for “transparent, competitive” elections.

Last week, Venezuelan rights group Foro Penal reported 102 arrests this year of people linked to the opposition campaign, adding to more than 270 “political prisoners” in the country.

About 21 million Venezuelans are eligible to vote.

Caracas has withdrawn an invitation to European Union experts to observe the vote, while allowing monitors from the UN and the US-based Carter Center.

Argentina’s former president Alberto Fernandez said Wednesday Caracas had withdrawn an invitation for him to observe the polling.

This came after he echoed a statement by Brazil’s President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who had said: “Maduro has to learn: if you win, you stay. If you lose, you go.”

Maduro and his opposition rival will both hold closing rallies in Caracas Thursday.

Gonzalez Urrutia will be accompanied by popular opposition leader Maria Corina Machado, who was disqualified from the race by institutions loyal to Maduro despite her hands-down victory in a primary vote last year.

Yeswecantv